Prediction of aviation safety incident risk level based on ECSDNN

Abstract

Prediction of aviation safety incident risk level is an important means of active risk management. Considering the high-dimensional complexity and class imbalance of massive aviation safety incident data, a prediction method for aviation safety incident risk level based on integrated cost-sensitive deep neural network (ECSDNN) is proposed. The feature representation of aviation safety incident data is realized by using the method of embedded coding of categorical attributes and splicing of numerical attributes; the cost-sensitive matrix and cost-sensitive loss function are designed by comprehensively considering the misclassification ratio and fixed cost, and the base classifier model based on cost-sensitive deep neural network (CSDNN) is constructed; the hard voting method is used to integrate multiple base classifiers with different parameters and performances to construct the integrated prediction model ECSDNN for aviation safety incident risk level. The experimental results on the Aviation Safety Incident Reporting System (ASRS) dataset show that compared with the optimal prediction ability of the baseline algorithm, the prediction accuracy of the ECSDNN model is improved 4.51%; compared with the single CSDNN base classifier, the prediction accuracy is improved 3.17%.